AUD USD News Aussie News Australian Dollar Forex Update

For Canadian Clients of VantageFX (or Canadian Forex Traders in General)

As you likely already know, VantageFX will no longer service Canadians residents as of Nov 30th. This is unfortunate, since VantageFX has done an excellent job serving Canadian clients with higher leverage account options from a well regulated and trusted broker.
Through contacts in the industry, we've been made aware of a new retail account offering at Pacific Union. Pacific Union has a good history of servicing institutional accounts and has only just started taking on retail clients, but they are positioned to service the Canadian clients in the space that VantageFX has left behind.
Further, we were made aware of Pacific Union first by contacts at VantageFX, and then this recommendation was backed up by a trusted source who works closely with both companies.
Again, to be very clear, this post isn't to give undue attention to some random broker.. we are providing this info because Pacific Union is a proper alternative for Canadian based traders that will no longer be serviced by VantageFX.
On that note, I've updated the wiki to include Pacific Union Prime - https://puprime.com:
Subreddit's Canadian Brokers Wiki Page
The only major difference I have noticed so far is lacking MT5, but the word is that Pacific Union will be reviewing MT5 and other enhancements to their offing next quarter after they get past the launch of their retail offering.
Key highlights from my perspective:
Remember, going offshore means you lose CIPF protection on funds, so a well vetted and properly regulated broker is a must!
UPDATE #1: Oct 6th: Took this post off sticky and redacted some info as the connection between VantageFX and Pacific Union Prime was not "official". Pacific Union is still a great alternative / replacement for Canadian clients seeing higher leverage accounts and who are no longer serviced after VantageFX left Canada.
UPDATE #2, Oct 8th: Adjusted this thread again to best reflect where Pacific Union Prime fits with VantageFX and former Canadian VantageFX cleints.
submitted by finance_student to Forex [link] [comments]

Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020

Will Aussie repeat the hat trick? Forecast as of 03.11.2020
The second quarter is likely to be the same as the second one. However, the disaster is not going to be so dramatic. If so, we have a pattern to trade the AUDUSD. Let us discuss the Australian dollar outlook and make up a trading plan.

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

What doesn't kill makes one stronger. The RBA’s monetary expansion should have crashed the Australian dollar. RBA not only cut the cash rate down to the all-time low of 0.1% but also boosted the purchases of assets with a maturity of 5-10 years within QE by AU$100 billion. The RBA has become one of the first to react to the second pandemic wave. However, the AUDUSD, instead of falling, surged up to the bottom of figure 71. Bloomberg experts anticipate such measures of the regulator, and the time for maneuver was not right. It is not wise to ease monetary policy on the day of the US presidential election, is it?
According to Philip Lowe, the increase of the QE size will support economic recovery amid lower costs of funding and exchange rate, as well as higher assets’ price than it would be in the opposite case. RBA must have tried to improve financial conditions, as the Fed did. It was one of the reasons for the US economic growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, the US GDP should face a downturn because of the difficult epidemiological situation. Australia, on the contrary, has coped with the coronavirus through a strict lockdown in Victoria. So, Australia’s GDP can well go up.

Dynamics of COVID-19 cases in Australia


https://preview.redd.it/z0b18quhc0x51.jpg?width=629&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed290b23768a625aba0bb3c0a891f975388ab309
Source: Trading Economics
According to the RBA forecasts, Australia’s GDP in the 2020/2021 financial year will expand by 6%, in 2021/2022 - by another 4%. The forecast for the unemployment peak has been cut from 10% to 8%. The core inflation will grow by 1% in 2021, and by 1.5% in 2022.
In addition to the domestic positive factors, foreign news also supports Aussie. Despite the disputes between Australia and China, which imposed tariffs on Australian barley, launched an anti-dumping investigation into Australian wine, and suspended imports of coal and lobsters from Australia, I believe that the trade relationships will be improved. China is the largest market for Australia. China’s economic growth by 1.9%, according to the IMF forecast, will support the AUDUSD bulls. Based on the yuan price changes, the AUDUSD looks undervalued.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and USDCNY


https://preview.redd.it/mqvioyaic0x51.jpg?width=634&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8db6d6a5debdaf671ce4902ce6fc43f2960f4ebb
Source: Trading Economics

Monthly AUDUSD trading plan

In general, market sentiment indicates that the fourth quarter for the global economy will be similar to the second one, although the disaster scale will be smaller. If so, we have a pattern to trade the Aussie. In late March, I recommended buying the Australian dollar in the range of $0.59-$0.62 amid the expectations of the V-shaped recovery of China’s economy, and this trading idea was winning. Now, there is another chance to repeat the hat trick provided that Joe Biden wins the election.
Biden also promises to attack China for its economic and human rights violations, the US-China relations are going to improve. As a result, the entire Pacific region will benefit. Australia, with its successful COVID-19 strategy, is no exception. If Biden wins, buy the AUDUSD with targets at 0.729 and 0.733.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/will-aussie-repeat-the-hat-trick-forecast-as-of-03112020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423

submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Aussie is a new victim of China. Forecast as of 13.10.2020

Monthly Australian dollar fundamental analysis

Sometimes, the Predator turns into the Prey, and the Prey, on the contrary, becomes the Predator. During the time of the US-China trade wars, the US looked as an aggressor attacking a victim, which was China. China couldn't adequately retaliate. US import tariffs pressed down China’s exports while selling off China’s Treasury stocks would hardly have been that effective. China was afraid of capital outflows, so it had to make concessions. Now, the victim has recovered and is looking for prey among weaker countries.
Financial Times, referring to the sources familiar with the matter, reports that Chinese power stations and steel mills have been verbally told to immediately stop using Australian coal. Coal is one of the primary components of Australia’s exports. China seems to be a vindictive country. It hasn’t forgiven Australia for the allegations to the COVID-19 laboratory origins, expressed a few months ago. The prey turned out into a predator. Will China continue retaliatory measures against Australia?
This time, Canberra has nothing to respond with. The share of Australia’s exports to China is about 40%, China’s exports to Australia are less than 2%. The trade war hasn’t yet started, but there is already the winner. The problems with the Australian coal exports and the yuan’s drop started an AUDUSD correction down. The AUD bulls used to seem invincible before. Australia’s economy was supported by several factors. The iron ore prices rose. China’s economy, being one of the key trade partners of Australia, was recovering rapidly.The AUDUSD rose by 31% from the low hit in March.

Dynamics of AUDUSD and iron ore prices


Source: Bloomberg
The AUD rise resulted from the rapidly growing US stock indexes and the global economic recovery in the third quarter. However, the AUDUSD rally will continue so fast in the next six-nine months. China’s PMI slows down, the US epidemiological situation is still difficult, the euro area faces the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, China attacks Australia, so it is natural that Aussie buyers are discouraged. The median gauge of Bloomberg’s experts for the AUD is $0.72, which corresponds to the current levels.
Nonetheless, there are always two currencies in a currency pair. According to Goldman Sachs, a ‘blue wave’ in the USA (Democrats take control of both the White House and the Congress after the election on November 3) and positive news about the coronavirus vaccines should send the USD down to the lows recorded in 2018. UBS and Invesco share a similar opinion. They recommend their clients to sell the dollar as Joe Biden’s rating grows. Hedge funds seem to follows such ideas.

Dynamics of USD and US dollar speculative positions


Source: Bloomberg
Monthly AUDUSD trading plan
I believe Beijing and Canberra will solve political problems, the yuan will resume its rally, and the Democrats will win in the elections. In this scenario, it is still relevant to buy the AUDUSD on the corrections down. The medium-term targets are at 0.745 and 0.762.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/aussie-is-a-new-victim-of-china-forecast-as-of-13102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

TSM and Me 2020

TSM has been on my radar since I started saving to invest in 2018 because of AMD / GlobalFoundries. Really interesting business model for Semis AMD has.
In 2019, you couldn't get away from heating up of the trade war. Congress began debating SAR for HK around the end of Hong Kong's "2019 Summer of Love" and rumors of what happens in the "re-education" camps / "Where did the Falun Gong practitioners go?" This is important because of the SWIFT system of world banking. HK is how they get dollars.
Then in November of 2019, this happened..
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Human_Rights_and_Democracy_Act#Related_bill
Arizona plant news is where the tin foil ends and the conviction began for me. The Foundry is basically THE corporation of Taiwan. The Great Cheetoh has been making deals around the world, and technically Taiwan isn't China. We have recent armament deals with Taiwan and Japan to prove it.
https://youtu.be/TLKt9yPb-f0
Why not?? Seemed like the American thing to do and there is a republican in office hell-bent on decoupling US communications tech from the CCP aka ROC.
In Feb / March... Rona. April the economic fallout, news about bad PPE and tests from China being sold to Italy. In May all the US boats in Taiwanese waters and the rhetoric worldwide basically reflecting that the world isn't happy with the CCP.
I had the balance for a RH call and it made more sense than an airline play at the time, so i got in.
Anti CCP rhetoric started heating up and bi-partisan on the YouTube's, by the way, it seems 2020 is the year NBC (Comcast) discovered ad-revenue. Thank you Lester.
At this point morning wood for TSM was a regular thing, so i set my limits on call options for both accounts, and incorporated into the LT DRIP. Thank you Papa Powell. I'm still poor, couldn't have done it without you...
Then it seemed to be heating up at the end of May. Everyone is like WTF 'mate on the "One Belt. One Road." Initiative, both the geographical and digital. People are really starting to report on not-so-great stories out of China, and not just tinfoil or Epoch Times channels.
Lot of shade being thrown on China tech, and things are heating up in S China Sea.
https://youtu.be/6KiLhxgIBys
https://youtu.be/BTgDYhtr-LU
...looks like Chy-na is on everyone's shit list, including Australia. Forex folks know how dope-tied the Aussie's and Kiwis are to CCP trade relations.
The rumor was potential decouple from China. I mean the world is kinda dope-tied to Santa's little elves. I just realized how weird Christmas will be...
I bought my shares for both accounts as per the voodoo ritual of purchasing at least 1 stock of a long term call strategy. Got my hand deep (for me) in the cookie jar May and June.
http://imgur.com/gallery/xb7ptte
http://imgur.com/gallery/ToFdT3z
Third week of July called a bull flag on hourly:
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/hwz949/daily_discussion_thread_for_july_24_2020/fz4bi1b?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
July 24th, I got filled to the teeth in RH and my now free play in Webull was up 1,600%.
http://imgur.com/gallery/0fB3FEp
THEN July 27th, I closed my "free play" in Webull at $1,250. A little over 3,000% between 2 contracts that cost $75 total.
Along the way, i picked up RH tendies and rebalanced the cash / bought more contracts and shares. They're officially part of the DRIP.
http://imgur.com/gallery/UFKPnOz
Related post I made last week regarding TSM and INTC. Any thoughts on how US semi production will play out for them?
https://www.reddit.com/wallstreetbets/comments/i0jqtu/opinions_on_taiwan_semiconducto?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share
Last week, The Fool confirmed many of the LT bias I had been building up on a win for The Foundry since November. All hype, or real talk?
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/31/3-tailwinds-are-lifting-tsmcs-stock-to-new-all-tim.aspx
Financial analysis- This guy is boring af, but he goes through the numbers that no one likes to read, records in mobile, and is cool enough to zoom in on what he is talking about.
https://youtu.be/wVxF7wwuogo
Can anyone see a downside other than "COVID CLAP Trumps all"? Maybe I've been chewing too much YouTube tinfoil on lunch, but the limit orders that are closing 930-4pm are making me think I've hit the Autistic Lottery. Wish I had bought more.
Friday, all I could see was a bull flag on the 4hr and 30min charts. Monday 8/03 it hasn't shit the bed at 11am EST. Maybe thats just the tin foil talking again and this is the ceiling.
http://imgur.com/gallery/nRYKBB5
Still in, and potentially interested in more contracts.
Open positions- http://imgur.com/gallery/naF9dik
submitted by aipipcyborg to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Stake vs Hatch Fees Explained

--UPDATE--
In light of Christine from Hatch's announcement of a reduction to a flat $3 broker fee, I've updated in a new comment here.
Treat the direct comparison of $ below as incorrect (once Hatch update their pricing).
--Old Text--
I decided to undertake a fees comparison of the two platforms as Stake is launching on Tuesday.
Comparing Hatch and Stake, the long and short of it is:
Most people will do the latter and be DCA in to a lot of smaller companies so Stake will end up being a lot cheaper on the buy-in.
https://imgur.com/a/wkuiIl1
Comparing to US based companies, assuming you use Transferwise to deposit into a US bank account and there is no fee to transfer from the US account to their service, Transferwise appear to get a 0.6% better FOREX rate than Hatch did when I just checked - Transferwise was $0.6067 vs Hatch $0.6029 (I'm assuming the Hatch FOREX rate will be similar to Stake, can't check atm as I don't have a Stake account until Tuesday). So the break-even point for using Transferwise at current FOREX rates is about $250 (below Stake is better, above Transferwise is better), excluding IBKTD Ameritrade fees (TDA have no broker fees currently). Hatch will allow USD transfer but only if you email them so I don't think you can use this as your regular deposit strategy.
One thing to consider with IBKTD Amertrade is they are US companies who are not at all interested in your NZ tax requirements so will not help you at all in the process. Customer support will be harder to get, and using Transferwise is not a trivial process especially if you are doing very regular deposits it can become a PITA for a relatively tiny difference in fees (eg if you deposit $500/fortnight the difference in FX fees is about $3 per transaction, so just don't buy that bag of chips and save yourself the hassle of using Transferwise + foreign based company IMO - and this is coming from someone who even changes power and ISP companies every year chasing better deals!).
Once you want to withdraw money, Hatch is obviously cheaper at 0.5% (edit: despite the $8 withdrawal fee) compared to 1% with Stake (and they have a $2 withdrawl fee that will be pretty negligible if you have a lot of money invested). Hatch will do an off-market transfer of US shares so best strategy might be using Stake for deposits and Hatch for withdrawals.
Another benefit to Hatch is that they are Kiwi owned so I think more likely to be accessible in terms of Tax and customer support than an Aussie based company (Stake). Lastly with Hatch, if a company is less than $400/share then you should buy a series of Fractional share bids unless you are buying more than 2.66 share units, above that the $8 broker fee is better.
Edit: I had a user complaining about the withdrawal fee of $8 through Hatch. This is true if you are regularly buying and selling shares. Typical advice given here is directed to buy and hold strategies (so you only get stung once for a withdrawal after X number of years), if you want day trading advice there are other subs for that. See my comment here.
submitted by kinnadian to PersonalFinanceNZ [link] [comments]

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

AUD/USD forecast: Aussie wants to keep the party going

Fundamental Australian dollar forecast for today

Are the AUD/USD growth drivers exhausted?

In the second quarter, the Australian economy encountered the deepest downturn since the records started in 1959. Australia’s GDP contracted by 7% Q-o-Q and by 6.3% Y-o-Y. The RBA cut the interest rate to the record lo. The central bank has also bought AU$60 since March amid the QE program. The Aussie should have dropped in value, but the AUD/USD rate has been 32% up since the low hit in March. Doesn’t the major rule of the fundamental analysis “strong economy – strong currency” work here? Now, it perfectly works! The matter is that everything is relative in Forex!
A drop by 6.3% in Australian growth is nothing compared to the US GDP contraction by 32%. AUS$60 billion is very little compared with the trillions of dollars in the USA. In Australia, there are less than 30,000 of coronavirus cases, while there are more than six million of COVID-19 cases in the USA. Australia has managed the pandemic better than many other advanced economies, the economy is not critically weak, the RBA yield control policy allows it not to waste the monetary tools. Besides, China supports Australia’s foreign trade.

Dynamics of RBA interest rate and the Australian dollar exchange rate


Source: Bloomberg
China is the largest market for Australian exports. Although the diplomatic relations between the two countries are tense, after Canberra accused China of COVID-19 laboratory origins, the trade relations are good. Since the beginning of the year, Australia’s exports to China have increased by 75% compared to the same period in 2016, when the last official meeting of the countries’ leaders took place. The core of the China-Australia trade is iron ore. Over the past twelve months, China has imported 700 million tons of iron ore from Australia. It is twice as much as it was in 2010 when the diplomatic relations between Australia and China were much better.

Chinese imports from Australia


Source: Bloomberg
Therefore, the AUD/USD uptrend is strong for several reasons. Australia’s economy is stronger compared to others, China supports Australia’s foreign trade, the Fed’s monetary expansion is unprecedented, which weakens the US dollar. The matter is whether the major bullish drivers have exhausted? Will the Aussie continue its rally?
The analysts polled by Reuters believe the AUD/USD uptrend should slow down. The see the pair trading at 0.72 in one and three months. In six and twelve months, the exchange rate will be at 0.73 and 0.74, accordingly. These levels are close to the current one, which suggests a long consolidation period. In my opinion, it is still relevant to buy the Aussie. China has averted a new round of trade war with the US. The Australian government is working on the income tax reduction bill, which should support GDP growth. The greenback’s’ long-term outlook remains bearish. So, I recommend entering the AUD/USD longs if Australia’s job report for August is positive. The middle-term targets are at 0.75 and 0.763.
For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex
https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/audusd-forecast-aussie-wants-to-keep-the-party-going/?uid=285861726&cid=79634
submitted by Maxvelgus to Finance_analytics [link] [comments]

Dollar drifts higher as coronavirus, China data sap confidence

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 69%. (I'm a bot)
SINGAPORE - The dollar steadied on Friday as a jump in U.S. bond yields and a drag on sentiment from lacklustre Chinese economic data put the brakes on a selldown of the world's reserve currency.
The mood had the dollar within reach of snapping a seven-week losing streak against the risk-sensitive Aussie AUD=D3, which has settled around $0.7149 and is flat for the week.
The yen JPY= is on course for its weakest week against the dollar in two months and is down about 0.9% at 106.84 from last Friday's close.
The biggest loser has been the kiwi NZD=D3, which was pressured at $0.6538, as the country faces a fresh coronavirus outbreak and after the central bank this week flagged increased bond buying and again mentioned the prospect of negative rates.
Against a basket of currencies =USD the dollar remains 0.2% lower for the week, but it has appeared to arrest a slide that has it about 9.5% below its March peak.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand sparked a bond rally this week by promising to extend its own purchases and, next week, speed them up as well.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: week#1 dollar#2 new#3 Friday#4 U.S.#5
Post found in /Coronavirus, /Economics, /Coronavirus and /CoronavirusRecession.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Definitely need some help...

So I’ve been practicing on a demo account for awhile in the forex market. I was at the point where I was trading without a stop loss but still cutting losses on my own. I was doing really good and profiting around 5,000 to 6,000 a month on a 25,000 dollar account. I was still reading the economic calendar on babypips but I got lazy on the general news and missed the trade talks going on, and see where I missed that now. I also got lazy and was trading on my phone but I remember two weeks ago looking at the the Aussie charts, thinking things were about to drop, I just kept going and was still trying to trade and that’s where I made a major screw up and realized that but I didn’t cut my losses but I also didn’t have a stop loss set.
When I first started trading I was doing horrible setting a stop loss, that’s why I quit using it. Every time I set a ten pip loss I would lose it. I got to the point I don’t mind seeing trades dip below a certain point if I think the market is going to come back up.
So is there any other places to teach you about stop losses and how to use it in a manor to my strategy and teach me about it better then babypips? I’ve used YouTube videos and reddit mostly to teach myself what I’ve learned from this point. I was kinda getting cocky and was thinking I was ready to put money into a real account and start going to work. I feel like this drop in the Aussie market is a wake up call that I need to teach myself to learn to use the stop loss because I if I would have set it I would have not blown up my account, and I haven’t done that in months... so back to the drawing board for me until I can learn this.
Also where do most traders get there news? I got tired of CNN and FOX NEWS to the point I feel like it’s a circus show. Is there somewhere I can get news that isn’t ridiculous dramatized and is accurate?
submitted by MrPike13 to Forex [link] [comments]

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures
Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
  • Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
  • Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost the Aussie, but they’re unpredictable
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question.
Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.
submitted by dailymarketsignals to u/dailymarketsignals [link] [comments]

Aussie brokers forex

Best Aussie Investment Brokers

Trading the financial markets in Australia when conditions are volatile can be difficult, even for experienced traders.
Apart from the educational and other resources made available online, another important factor for traders to consider is the platform that a broker offers.Aussie brokers forex
Choosing a reliable and trustworthy forex broker that meets your needs and specific trading goals is essential, but in such a highly competitive market, how do you make the best decision?
To gain access to the financial markets, you'll need a broker that you can rely on. Read on to learn more about the factors you should consider when choosing a broker.
You can see a list of the best Australian brokers here.

5 Factors to Consider when Choosing a Broker

Follow these five rules for selecting a broker that's right for you:

Trusted/Established Provider

Look for a broker that has a good track record/longevity in the market so that your strategy is your primary concern for navigating the markets.
Established in 2008, and in operation for 11 years Plus500 have a head office in Israel.
Plus500 is regulated. This means Plus500 are supervised by and is checked for conduct by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN 509909) and Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (License No. 250/14) regulatory bodies.

World-Leading

Choose a broker that's at the forefront of innovation and generally considered an industry-leader.
Plus500 offers both an online trading platform as well as a mobile platform giving clients easy access to markets. In addition, Plus500 supports the popular third-party trading platform, MetaTrader 4(MT4)enabling access to a variety of markets worldwide that can be traded with the assistance of expert advisors or a customizable automatic trading strategy. Plus500 is a world-leader when it comes to innovation and they are always looking at ways to improve and to maintain their competitive advantage.

Commissions and fees

Ensure that your broker is transparent with fees and those dues are competitive. Plus500 offers competitive spreads for Forex trading with an average of 0.9 pips for EUUSD and a margin requirement ranging between 2 – 5% depending on the pair traded.

Round-the-clock support

Plus500 offers 24-hour support where clients are able to call or contact the helpdesk via email, twitter or a chat service.

Comprehensive Trader resources

Make sure your broker offers free resources like analysis, education and risk-management tools. With a wealth of knowledge from top analysts, Plus500 work together to bring the latest news and insights to traders.
For most traders, the first – and sometimes only – concern is pursuing their 'edge'. While that is surely important, along with sound money management habits, to navigating the markets; that step alone does not represent the full preparation.
As each trader dives into this important venture, it is important not to forget the most rudimentary yet crucial steps such as selecting the best broker to access the markets.
If you are interested in learning more about investing you can learn more here.
submitted by adilkhatri009 to u/adilkhatri009 [link] [comments]

Avoiding news hours in Forex

I'm a purely technical trader and I wanted to start avoiding important news hours to avoid unordinary market moves. Looking at when the news are released I see dozens of different news releases during the day. Some of them have higher impact and some of them have obviously a lower one. I know there are lots of technical traders here on / Forex, so where do you guys usually check for important news releases to avoid trading at those times ?
submitted by pipcrawler to Forex [link] [comments]

Dollar on defensive after Fed comments, sterling advance

Mercantile Bank share an update here
submitted by Altruistic_Camel to econmonitor [link] [comments]

Euro’s bounce slows as focus shifts back to economy, ECB policy

FILE PHOTO: Wads of euro banknotes are stacked in a pile at the Money Service Austria company’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerFebruary 19, 2019
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held steady against its peers on Tuesday, lacking strong direction as U.S. markets were shut for a holiday the previous day, while the euro’s latest bounce slowed as the focus drifted back to the economy and European Central Bank policy.
The dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 96.784 after ending the previous session flat. The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.
The euro was little changed at $1.1312 after edging up 0.16 percent overnight, when it pulled away from a three-month low of $1.1234.
The single currency was buoyed by improved investor sentiment as expectations increased for an easing of the U.S.-China trade conflict after both sides reported progress in talks.
The dollar, the world’s most liquid currency, has tended to perform well during bouts of investor nervousness.
“The euro’s latest bounce was not based a positive incentive specific to the currency and the market will likely return to pricing in the potential negatives. The euro will remain on a shaky footing,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.
“There is still some way to go before potential negatives are factored into the euro ahead of the March 7 ECB meeting.”
ECB policymakers will next meet on March 7, when the bank’s staff are expected to slash growth and inflation projections as the euro zone suffers its biggest slowdown in half a decade.
The dollar was a shade lower at 110.59 yen after gaining a modest 0.15 percent overnight.
The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7129 after dipping 0.15 percent the previous day.
The immediate focus was on the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting held at the start of the month.
Governor Philip Lowe on Feb. 6 opened the door to a possible rate cut by acknowledging growing economic risks, in a remarkable shift from its long-standing tightening bias that sent the Aussie tumbling.
Source: OANN
from MAGA First News https://magafirstnews.com/oan-newsroom/euros-bounce-slows-as-focus-shifts-back-to-economy-ecb-policy/
via IFTTT
submitted by peterboykin to TheRightPill [link] [comments]

Euro’s bounce slows as focus shifts back to economy, ECB policy

FILE PHOTO: Wads of euro banknotes are stacked in a pile at the Money Service Austria company’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerFebruary 19, 2019
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held steady against its peers on Tuesday, lacking strong direction as U.S. markets were shut for a holiday the previous day, while the euro’s latest bounce slowed as the focus drifted back to the economy and European Central Bank policy.
The dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 96.784 after ending the previous session flat. The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.
The euro was little changed at $1.1312 after edging up 0.16 percent overnight, when it pulled away from a three-month low of $1.1234.
The single currency was buoyed by improved investor sentiment as expectations increased for an easing of the U.S.-China trade conflict after both sides reported progress in talks.
The dollar, the world’s most liquid currency, has tended to perform well during bouts of investor nervousness.
“The euro’s latest bounce was not based a positive incentive specific to the currency and the market will likely return to pricing in the potential negatives. The euro will remain on a shaky footing,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.
“There is still some way to go before potential negatives are factored into the euro ahead of the March 7 ECB meeting.”
ECB policymakers will next meet on March 7, when the bank’s staff are expected to slash growth and inflation projections as the euro zone suffers its biggest slowdown in half a decade.
The dollar was a shade lower at 110.59 yen after gaining a modest 0.15 percent overnight.
The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7129 after dipping 0.15 percent the previous day.
The immediate focus was on the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting held at the start of the month.
Governor Philip Lowe on Feb. 6 opened the door to a possible rate cut by acknowledging growing economic risks, in a remarkable shift from its long-standing tightening bias that sent the Aussie tumbling.
Source: OANN
from MAGA First News https://magafirstnews.com/oan-newsroom/euros-bounce-slows-as-focus-shifts-back-to-economy-ecb-policy/
via IFTTT
submitted by peterboykin to MagaFirstNews [link] [comments]

Euro’s bounce slows as focus shifts back to economy, ECB policy

FILE PHOTO: Wads of euro banknotes are stacked in a pile at the Money Service Austria company’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerFebruary 19, 2019
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held steady against its peers on Tuesday, lacking strong direction as U.S. markets were shut for a holiday the previous day, while the euro’s latest bounce slowed as the focus drifted back to the economy and European Central Bank policy.
The dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 96.784 after ending the previous session flat. The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.
The euro was little changed at $1.1312 after edging up 0.16 percent overnight, when it pulled away from a three-month low of $1.1234.
The single currency was buoyed by improved investor sentiment as expectations increased for an easing of the U.S.-China trade conflict after both sides reported progress in talks.
The dollar, the world’s most liquid currency, has tended to perform well during bouts of investor nervousness.
“The euro’s latest bounce was not based a positive incentive specific to the currency and the market will likely return to pricing in the potential negatives. The euro will remain on a shaky footing,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.
“There is still some way to go before potential negatives are factored into the euro ahead of the March 7 ECB meeting.”
ECB policymakers will next meet on March 7, when the bank’s staff are expected to slash growth and inflation projections as the euro zone suffers its biggest slowdown in half a decade.
The dollar was a shade lower at 110.59 yen after gaining a modest 0.15 percent overnight.
The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7129 after dipping 0.15 percent the previous day.
The immediate focus was on the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting held at the start of the month.
Governor Philip Lowe on Feb. 6 opened the door to a possible rate cut by acknowledging growing economic risks, in a remarkable shift from its long-standing tightening bias that sent the Aussie tumbling.
Source: OANN
from MAGA First News https://magafirstnews.com/oan-newsroom/euros-bounce-slows-as-focus-shifts-back-to-economy-ecb-policy/
via IFTTT
submitted by peterboykin to The_NewDonald [link] [comments]

Euro’s bounce slows as focus shifts back to economy, ECB policy

FILE PHOTO: Wads of euro banknotes are stacked in a pile at the Money Service Austria company’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria, March 3, 2016. REUTERS/Leonhard FoegerFebruary 19, 2019
By Shinichi Saoshiro
TOKYO (Reuters) – The dollar held steady against its peers on Tuesday, lacking strong direction as U.S. markets were shut for a holiday the previous day, while the euro’s latest bounce slowed as the focus drifted back to the economy and European Central Bank policy.
The dollar index versus a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 96.784 after ending the previous session flat. The U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day.
The euro was little changed at $1.1312 after edging up 0.16 percent overnight, when it pulled away from a three-month low of $1.1234.
The single currency was buoyed by improved investor sentiment as expectations increased for an easing of the U.S.-China trade conflict after both sides reported progress in talks.
The dollar, the world’s most liquid currency, has tended to perform well during bouts of investor nervousness.
“The euro’s latest bounce was not based a positive incentive specific to the currency and the market will likely return to pricing in the potential negatives. The euro will remain on a shaky footing,” said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief forex strategist at Mizuho Securities.
“There is still some way to go before potential negatives are factored into the euro ahead of the March 7 ECB meeting.”
ECB policymakers will next meet on March 7, when the bank’s staff are expected to slash growth and inflation projections as the euro zone suffers its biggest slowdown in half a decade.
The dollar was a shade lower at 110.59 yen after gaining a modest 0.15 percent overnight.
The Australian dollar was flat at $0.7129 after dipping 0.15 percent the previous day.
The immediate focus was on the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy meeting held at the start of the month.
Governor Philip Lowe on Feb. 6 opened the door to a possible rate cut by acknowledging growing economic risks, in a remarkable shift from its long-standing tightening bias that sent the Aussie tumbling.
Source: OANN
from MAGA First News https://magafirstnews.com/oan-newsroom/euros-bounce-slows-as-focus-shifts-back-to-economy-ecb-policy/
via IFTTT
submitted by peterboykin to The_NewDonald [link] [comments]

Yen weakens in Asian trade

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 67%. (I'm a bot)
SINGAPORE - The safe-haven yen fell versus its peers on Wednesday as concerns over slowing global growth and U.S.-Sino trade tensions dampened investors' appetite for riskier assets.
"Nervousness around global growth and trade tensions is certainly a factor driving the markets right now," said Michael McCarthy, chief markets strategist at CMC Markets.
On Monday, the International Monetary Fund cut its 2019 and 2020 global growth forecasts, citing a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China and the eurozone, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilize a slowing global economy.
Investors are hoping for a breakthrough in U.S.-Sino trade talks, with the tariff dispute between the world's largest economies already rippling through financial markets and global demand.
The dollar rally last year was mainly driven by the Fed's four rate hikes, so traders expect a pause in the tightening cycle to cap the U.S. currency.
The New Zealand dollar NZD= gained 0.25 percent in early Asian trade to $0.6766 after data showed that inflation edged higher in the fourth quarter and reducing the possibility of an interest rate cut.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: trade#1 market#2 percent#3 global#4 growth#5
Post found in /worldnews and /NotClickBaitNews.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Let's Talk Fundamentals (because they might be important this week)

This is more of a brain dump to encourage discussion, so I'd love to hear your thoughts.
Something strange happened this week.
Stocks fell off - mostly Japanese stocks, but equity markets everywhere suffered nasty losses. The S&P 500 shat a nasty reversal candle on Thursday, and the Nikkei posted one of its largest falls in history on Friday.
At the same time bonds fell (yields rose). The US Dollar also fell.
That's not how it's supposed to work.
When stocks fall, bond yields fall (bond prices rise) because more people buy them. Where the hell was the money going?
Into the Yen and the Swiss Franc, mostly. The Yen because most of the action was in Japan. The USD/JPY and Nikkei 225 are HEAVILY correlated. I can't tell if the fall in stocks preceded the fall in USD/JPY (and AUD/JPY, which many say led the way), or if it was the other way around, but either way we had classic risk aversion kicking in.
USD/JPY posted its largest weekly decline since 2011.
There was some jawboning, and data from Japan to suggest that the new QE measures are working.
But wait a second: they've only just started. That money hasn't really filtered down to anywhere where it's actually being used to power the economy. The only real effect so far has been a massive uplift in stocks. This is because a lot of the Nikkei 225 is made up of exporters and multi-nationals, and a falling Yen boosts their expected profits - nobody's actually made any money yet.
The technicals still only say "retracement", not "reversal", but we're hanging in by a thread - especially USD/JPY. If we break Friday's low, 100 is in sight. If this break is for real, this psychological barrier will mean absolutely nothing.
After this 97.00 is next, then 95.00/94.50, then 92. I don't think any fall would get down to 92, or even 94, but 97 is highly possible by the end of this week - and if we get there, it could be in a matter of minutes.
Before I go on, COT data
(For newbie traders, COT means Commitment of Traders, and it's a series of complicated charts showing net speculative futures positioning. When you overly it onto price data, you will find that extremes of short positioning tend to precede massive rallies. This is because a LOT of people get increasingly short as price starts to fall, which reaches an extreme as it continues to fall. Price starts to come back up, and the extreme extends a little bit more, before you get a short squeeze and everyone buys furiously to get out of unprofitable short positions)
Aussie COT showed a massive extreme in short positioning: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774559
So did the Japanese Yen: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774580
The most telling is the S&P500: http://stocktwits.com/message/13774599
The light blue line says that the big money is getting more and more out of stocks (or since it's futures positioning, they're starting to bet it will fall)
All other things being equal, this means these two are probably due a large correction. All other things might not be equal, however. Extremes in quiet times can become the norm in unusual circumstances - bear this in mind.
This is the scenario if Asian stocks lead the fall. Longs are clearly nervous, but the docket is light this week. This alone could be enough - with minor bad news sparking panic selling. The US Dollar could see some initial selling purely on USD/JPY, pushing the majors higher. This will happen during the Asian session. If it happens in the morning, you will see European markets open lower, and we might get early USD weakness as USD/JPY sells off.
But it won't last. The risk aversion will spill into European and US stocks as these markets open, and they may gap significantly lower. In this case the Swiss Franc will strengthen first, followed by the US Dollar. So I don't like USD/CHF so much here. The US Dollar will almost certainly surge once US markets open.
If this is the real deal, (and that is the biggest fucking "IF" ever because many have called this reversal lots of times and have given up after being wrong repeatedly) this dollar surge will be enormous. The world will be waking up from its dream of a fragile recovery that has been overblown by surging stock markets.
Stock markets have been rallying for mixed reasons. Some of it is investor confidence, but most of it is simply the search for yield, which most cash investments can't provide at the moment. Dividend yields in stocks are good, and fund managers have been buying them because they need to beat indices, which are rising more quickly than the values of their portfolios. This cycle has fed itself, and stocks have risen, even though demand for those companies' products and services has remained tepid.
If this happens, the Yen crosses will be blown to bits, as will the majors. But don't just go short everything if you see it falling. It will be difficult to know whether it's the real thing, and you'll have to be in front of your trading screen at the time (unless you want to set breakout orders)
We are seeing all the signs of a minor bubble bursting.
The headlines have been all about markets hitting new highs, and everybody buying stocks. That is usually a sign that the smart money has started selling their large holdings to incoming retail investors, and that a lot of the profit from the bull run has been made. If stocks start to look wobbly up here, the last ones in will be the first ones out.
Look at USD/JPY or the other Yen crosses zoomed out to 2005. The rise is absurd. I showed it to my girlfriend, who doesn't know the first thing about Forex, and she said it looked unnatural and if she had to guess, the next move would be "down a bit". This kind of woke me up a little - it was so obvious because the move up seems to be against the laws of nature, even if backed by fundamentals. Humans are good at pattern recognition, and even she could look at previous price action and recognize that a sharp rise like this almost never happens without a bit of falling.
It all depends on where you bought.
For example, if you had held USD/JPY since 92.00, and you planned to hold it for the rest of the year, you wouldn't worry so much about a drop to 97 (though it would be annoying). If you were long on a break of 100.00, you would be getting the fuck out. Your stop might be at 100, or maybe you'd locked in 50 pips. The point is that longs are now nervous, and bids will be hard to find below 100. Most people are probably prepared to take a chance buying a dip into around 100 (I know I am), but not below there.
Below there are stop losses. Hundreds of millions of them.
So that's my take on things. I'm not saying the world will end this week, but we all know that what goes up very quickly when there isn't a good reason to do so, usually comes down pretty quickly as well.
Others would argue with my fundamentals. I've seen articles saying that the rise in stocks can be attributed to companies holding on to cash reserves and paying high dividends, because they are worried that the recovery might not come. When they finally do see it coming, they will start spending that cash on growing and employing people - so maybe stocks are leading the global economy in this recovery.
I say horse shit. Demand has to precede supply, and right now the powerhouses of the global economy have more supply capacity than there is demand for. We have got into this situation because corporate profits have stayed very good during the last few years, but household incomes have fallen in real terms, and the average consumer is no better off, even though central bank governors are starting to say otherwise.
You and I are still earning far less money than we should be, and spending proportionally more and more of it every year as wage growth struggles to keep up with inflation, which is already low in most developed countries. Corporate profits continue to do well, but this money is not being spent in the real economy and used to create jobs.
I'm not going to go all marxist here for my last thoughts, but it is important to realise that there is a continuing and growing concentration of wealth in the hands of the few. They might say that they are the job creators, and many of them are. But for the most part they are the wealth hoarders. That money goes into things that cause the economy to appear to be growing, but do not actually grow the real economy - company stock, large assets, investments.
They also buy things from companies that are seeing their profits grow faster than the wages they pay. Where a dozen board executives get huge bonuses and a hundred thousand shareholders see their balance sheets grow, the people who are actually spending their portion of that company's profits (the employees) don't have any more money to inject into the economy than they did last year.
These market forces are going to collide sooner or later. Either:
I'm not saying it will happen this week, or at all. All I'm saying is that stocks are rising very quickly on not much at all. There are precedents for this throughout history, and it never ends well. When you hear hoof beats, don't think zebras.
TL;DR Forecast is choppy, with a light chance of apocalypse
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

Dollar weakens, yen at October highs after US stocks slide

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 72%. (I'm a bot)
The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, fell 0.31 percent to 95.21 on Thursday, after hitting a high of 95.79 in the previous session.
"In an environment where people are concerned about rising volatility, the dollar tends to do well - especially versus higher-risk currencies such as the Aussie and Canadian dollar," said Stuart Ritson, head of Asian rates & foreign exchange at Aviva Investors.
The pound has gained more than 2 percent versus the dollar over the last five trading sessions.
The Canadian Dollar was changing hands at 1.3048, not far off its October low of 1.3069 versus the dollar hit on Wednesday.
The Australian dollar, often viewed as a gauge of global risk appetite, traded at 0.7078, up 0.25 percent on Thursday.
The New Zealand's dollar traded at 0.6476, above its multiyear low of 0.6422 seen on Monday.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: dollar#1 percent#2 traded#3 Thursday#4 markets#5
Post found in /worldnews.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
submitted by autotldr to autotldr [link] [comments]

Trade Ideas for AUD/USD

Tomorrow at 2:00pm EST the Fed will announce their interest rate decision. It’s highly anticipated that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at 0.50%
Australia’s interest rate decision is happening on May 3rd at 12:30am EST and the RBA is expected to cut interest rates from 2.00% down to 1.75% which could add some selling pressure to the Aussie. Come next week, we might start to see some selling pressure in the Aussie as we get closer to the RBA interest rate decision.
Now, let’s take a look at some of the Australian economic indicators to get a better sense of whether we think the RBA will cut interest rates or leave them unchanged.
Overall Australia is doing fairly well. Their unemployment figures are declining on a monthly basis. GDP annual growth is improving. In January GDP came in at 3% while Oct 2015 the figure was 2.7 and in July of 2015, it was only 2%.
On the other hand:
Wage growth is slowing down on a monthly basis Retail Sales MoM is stagnant Retail Sales YoY is gradually declining Consumer Confidence declined in April to 95.1 from 99.1 in March and 101.3 in February New Home Sales dropped by 5.3% to 7332 in February from 7946 in January 
I’m personally not in favor of trading prior to any major risk event like tomorrow’s FOMC but based on the fundamentals that I gathered here and analyzing the chart technically, I’m more bullish towards this particular pair and prefer to continue to trade with the trend.
Technical Levels to Monitor
Support is at: 0.7690, 0.7637
Resistance is at: 0.7764, 0.7825, 0.8063
To see the full article, visit www.TorontoForex.com
submitted by fxiq to Forex [link] [comments]

In Search of the Best Yen Pair

This will be a wall of text, but with pictures! I'm going to attempt to analyse USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY, and ZAJPY. I'm really interested in your feedback, especially from the guys who are good with the supply/demand levels :)
A thought occurred to me while I was regretting eating McDonalds for dinner last night. When there are strong directional moves by one pair, associated pairs and crosses will move in the same way - especially if that move is the result of only one of those currencies strengthening or weakening. Often however, its the associated pairs that will offer a cleaner technical setup.
The purpose of this post is to identify a Yen pair that has the greatest upside potential in the event of the Yen weakening again. It might take a long time to get back up to the highs, so I want a currency with a really good outlook. If you think there is a strong case for a continued move to the downside, I really want to hear it as well.
Likewise on the last big leg up in USD/JPY, when we cracked 100 and then some, I actually lost out a little bit by spreading my trades across EUJPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY - the rationale being that if the Yen weakened rapidly, the risk trades would do the best against them rather than the dollar (which normally has quite muted moves whenever the Yen weakens rapidly). Except in that case it was the dollar strengthening, and the Yen fought back against the Euro and Pound.
So I got thinking: one of these pairs must have the cleanest technicals, the simplest fundamentals, and offer the best risk:reward potential for a trade to the upside - especially since it's the BoJ in 2 days.
I'm going to go through the suspects one by one, and just do some basic technical and fundamental analysis. I will only be using trendlines, fibonacci levels and the 50 & 100D SMAs.
For the purpose of simplicity I have ignored price data pre mid-2012, as most of those levels are gone now. Except the one we're at now - in almost all pairs the current level has been a significant pivot, dating back a few years.
Starting with /forex's most hated pair:
USD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/W8DRrkU.png
Technicals 100 is once again a significant obstacle, and I expect sideways action between here and 96, if the selloff doesn't continue. The Yen might weaken again very sharply, but so also might the dollar. We have a fairly clear and convincing trendline break, and I'm regretting getting in long. We might have a low in place, but we also might not. We are currently supported at a critical level by the 100DMA and the 0.23 fib, as well as a known demand level. A break lower here targets 95 and then 93.50.
Fundamentals We will need a dollar rally as well as a Yen rout to climb quickly, and I'm unwilling to play only one and not the other. Without signs that the US will slow easing and Japan will at least keep it up, we do not have the fundamental driver to push very much higher.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is to be found here, in either direction. Long seems to be the way forward, but we need some convincing. Otherwise it's sell rallies into 100.
EUJPY
http://i.imgur.com/ETkvc23.png
Technicals If we're looking for the best technical setup for a long, we might have it here. We've spiked through this pair's most significant demand level, bounced off the 100DMA, and closed above the trend line. It's a fairly simple picture.
Fundamentals I am slightly concerned by the Euro's lacklustre performance against everything besides the dollar. EUGBP is down, EUAUD didn't add 200 pips in the last session, etc. That said, I think that the Eurozone is going to start impressing people soon, as long as they can avoid another sovereign debt crisis. Which they won't. It will happen and when it does it will suck this pair down the suck hole faster than USD/JPY ever could.
Trades The problem here is that the bottom of Friday's hammer is 280 fucking pips away. I don't know about you guys but I don't like setting stops 280 pips away, especially with limited upside potential right now. I would look for a higher low to form first before getting in long - maybe around 128.50.
A new Eurozone crisis, continued Yen strength and a break of Friday's low could send this pair screeching to a spike low of 115 in a matter of minutes, in my opinion.
GBP/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/gv5WVy5.png
Technicals Another good long tech setup. A Head and Shoulders pattern was broken and completed on Thursday, with a close above the trend line.
Fundamentals The UK economy is looking better than it has all year, and its recovery is looking set to overtake the Eurozone's. However, Mark Carney comes in next month and we might be staring down the barrel of more dovish MP. This could destroy Cable's fragile recovery, which is showing signs of weakness at a previous pivot level and significant fib.
Trades Going long here seems like the obvious choice. A stop would need to be quite wide, but below Thursday's low would probably be sufficient, as we could probably see Friday's low as a bizarre volatility spike that had very little to do with the Pound or the Yen. Mind you that is still 160 pips away, so either wait for a dip or keep your position size very small.
AUD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/EDZigYP.png
Technicals This is not a chart that screams, "go long", and it makes me worry about the other Yen pairs' upside potential. It could well be that the next significant move lower starts here, as the Aussie continues its collapse. Currently holding at the 50% fib and 200DMA, but any trendlines are long gone and we can expect price consolidation as long as we do not go lower.
Fundamentals China released a lot of bad data this weekend, some neutral data, and no good data. The Aussie and Kiwi underperformed against the USD this week, despite being given a massive head start. There is huge scope for further easing, and this currency is strictly in "sell rallies" mode. A gold and commodities recovery is the only thing that will save the Australian dollar.
Trades I don't like it either way. As has been said on this sub before: what a c*nt of a pair.
NZD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/5pEnfhq.png
Technicals An even uglier picture than AUD/JPY, but we have spiked off the 0.38 fib and closed above the 200DMA, if that means anything. A break of Friday's low could get extremely bad very quickly, but this pair isn't known to really motor.
Fundamentals The Kiwi actually performed worse than the Aussie this week, closing at the lows and through significant support, while the Aussie staged a late rally. It's hard to be bullish either of these currencies. This is purely due to the commodities slump. Despite tightening MP, the Kiwi looks particularly vulnerable as the entire bloc collapses.
Trades I'm not sure the best trade is here, but if Yen strength continues then selling a rally into 77.50 looks like a good play.
CAD/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/AdcnwkO.png
Technicals 97.50 is the bull/bear line here and we're well through it, so we would need a close above here to be really bullish. Price bounced off the 0.23 fib and 100DMA, and 97.50 once again offers the most serious upside resistance. A break lower here targets 91.50
Fundamentals The Canadian dollar staged a late rally on Friday on the back of ridiculously good employment data. USD/CAD is now at descending channel support and the 50% fib of the recent rally, so I would be careful either way. Otherwise I don't know much about the Canadian fundamental picture, but I believe they're happy to see Carney go.
Trades Not really sure what to do here. If anyone is more familiar with this pair, let's hear it. Otherwise I'm gonna stay out of this one.
CHF/JPY
http://i.imgur.com/4vvoI2o.png
Technicals CHF/JPY was actually the biggest gainer in % terms when Japan first announced its QE program. Since then it hasn't done much. Trendline is gone but we've bounced off the 100DMA, which has provided support before. We need above 105 to get really bullish here. There is a very long broken wedge which technically targets 93.
Fundamentals I expect the Swiss Franc to weaken if the stock market recovers from here. If it doesn't, and we see a continued decline in stocks, the Yen will strengthen more than the Franc, so we'll probably head down some more. Overall it doesn't look good for this pair. If USD/JPY recovers sharply, USD/CHF probably will as well, so gains here will be muted. If on the other hand gains are driven by fundamental Yen weakening in response to more QE, would could see a large move to the upside.
Trades Buy on a break and hold of 105 only.
ZAJPY
http://i.imgur.com/SYiZZpd.png
I just put this up for the lolz. Something has gone horribly wrong for South Africa, so if you think the Aussie's had it bad...
Technicals A break of the 50% fib gives us real cause for concern here. If the Rand continues to weaken as a result of gold weakening, we could see the rally fully retraced. Expect consolidation.
Fundamentals The Rand performed worst of all the commodity currencies, as gold continues to slide (it recently broke out of its consolidation to the upside, only to crash on Friday to confirm a break lower again, targeting $1350). When USD/JPY collapsed on Thursday, USD/ZAR barely blinked. I've been trading it to the upside on dips, but 10.00 seems to be capping moves for now. If gold does not recover sharply, the South African economy is going to suffer very badly.
Trades F that noise. Buy USD/ZAR on a break of 10.25, or sell it on a break out of consolidation.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

currency pairs and correlation - how do you trade?

fellow forex traders i am curious about how you guys put together the list of currency pairs you are watching? especially if currency pair correlation play a role to you? for example if you have the eurusd in your list do you also have the gbpusd? these pairs are positively correlated at about 90%. see link: http://www.myfxbook.com/forex-market/correlation/EURUSD
if you take correlation into consideration at what percentage would you think that correlation is no longer important? at 80%? 70%?
i understand it would be to prefer to trade the eurusd as it has more liquidity and not trade both at same time as you expose yourself to the same risk in two trades.
i am a newbie so still in the process of finalizing my list. recently became aware of the correlations between some pairs and was thinking about which ones to exclude. this is my list:
Major Currencies:
Symbol Name Nickname
EURO/USD Euro-Dollar Euro
USD/JPY Dollar-Yen Yen
GBP/USD Sterling-Dollar Sterling
USD/CHF Dollar-Swiss Swissy
AUD/USD Austrialian-Dollar Aussie
USD/CAD Dollar-Canada Loonie
NZD/USD New Zealand-Dollar Kiwi
Cross Currencies:
Symbol Name Nickname
EURO/GDP Euro-Sterling Chunnel
EURO/CHF Euro-Swiss Chief
EURO/JPY Euro-Yen Yuppy
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Forex Technical Analysis  Why Australia & New Zealand is selling off. Forex News Trading, How I Trade News, Real Time Example ... IJS TV: 11_10_2020 – EURO / AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR FOREX TRADE ... The Aussie Share Trader - YouTube Trading at the Mall  Aussie Employment Change  Fundamental News Trading Forex Preview: 25/02/2020 - Australian Q4 capex to rise, unlikely to arrest aussie’s decline

Asian Currency News. Updated . FOREX-Aussie dollar at one-week low; risk-off mood supports U.S. dollar . By Olga Cotaga. 3 Min Read * Euro/dollar, dollar/Japanese yen steady * Sterling clings to ... FOREX-Dollar slips, Aussie gains, currency markets weigh up vaccine vs second wave. Read full article. Elizabeth Howcroft. November 13, 2020, 4:50 a.m. · 3 min read * Dollar slips as vaccine rally peters out * Yen recovers some losses * Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E (Updates prices, adds comment) By Elizabeth Howcroft. LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped ... European Currency News. Updated . FOREX-Dollars bought as stimulus hopes ebb; Aussie sinks on easing hints. By Tom Westbrook. 0 Min Read * Yen near 2-week peak, dollar firm * AUD drops after RBA ... AUDNZD was 0.45% higher on the day as the Aussie currency continued to get a boost from the Reserve Bank meeting on Tuesday. The pair is over 100 pips higher than Monday’s low. Yesterday’s RBA meeting saw the bank cutting interest rates by 0.15% as expected and also embarking on a A$100bn ... But while we are getting more and more news about import limitations from China, the more obvious it looks that Australia will have to get out of its economic pit by itself. Most of those measures are based on lower rates for longer, due to uneven recovery. This risks putting long-term pressure on the Aussie. Suppose AUDUSD fails in the coming weeks at 0.67, the support area for 2019 and a 61 ... Forex News. Technical Analysis. Economic Calendar. AUD USD News. Economies.com provides the latest News about the AUD/USD (Australian Dollar/Dollar or Aussie). You may find the News on a daily basis with an indication for the daily trend. You may also find live updates around the clock if any major changes occur in the currency pair. List of content . Forex Rates: Forex News: Technical ... FOREX-Aussie dollar at one-week low; risk-off mood supports U.S. dollar . Read full article. Olga Cotaga. October 15, 2020, 1:50 AM · 3 min read * Euro/dollar, dollar/Japanese yen steady ... S&P 500 Outstrips Nasdaq on Pfizer News, Dollar Lacking Direction After Biden Win. 2020-11-10 04:15:00 USD/JPY May Rise on Vaccine Hopes Despite Election Dispute, Chinese CPI Eyed. 2020-11-10 01 ... FOREX-Aussie hits two-week low; risk-off mood supports US dollar. Read full article. Olga Cotaga . October 15, 2020, 4:51 AM · 3 min read * Euro down 0.3% vs dollar * Dollar flat vs peer safe ... Check our updated for AUDUSD News including real time updates, forecast, technical analysis and the economic latest events from the best source of Forex News.

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Forex Technical Analysis Why Australia & New Zealand is selling off.

Darren is The Aussie Share Trader, keeping you updated on shares to watch on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) for trading, and giving advice on creating w... Miss World 2019 Toni-Ann Singh - Lifestyle, Boyfriend, Family, Biography 2020 Celebrity Glorious - Duration: 10:26. Celebrity Glorious Recommended for you Alistair Schultz, Chief Market Analyst, walks us through the week we had on the Aussie Dollar as well as a look ahead at the high impact economic events you must keep an eye on. Catch up with the ... How I Trade Forex News Events, example in Real Time, Manually, 2019, Read my article on Trading Forex News Events - http://jannafx.com/news-trading-strategy-... Risk Warning: 70.31% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Please ... Intraday EUR/AUD Futures Trade Interested in weekly Futures and Forex trades, SUBSCRIBE: http://bit.ly/2IzmbZM WATCH MORE: Most Recent Videos: http://bit.ly/... COVID-19 UPDATE: 🚨🚨 CORONA VIRUS UPDATE🚨🚨 Due to increased volume, our Academy is closed, To Accommodate YOU, we created THE RECESSION ROOM (free access link...

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